1. IMF's price policy for an "inescapable" crisis"
While price monitors and currency traders were looking for any new reflection in the voice of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) developed a game plan to counter potential global conflict.
The plan would see the central banks to apply negative interest rates, given their current low levels.
With continued concerns about trade tensions unresolved, particularly between the United States and China, continued the IMF in preventive action to enable the makers of monetary policy to fight the crisis "inevitable".
She explained that many central banks lowered interest rates on the policy, to zero during the global financial crisis to boost growth and noted that after ten years, interest rates remain low in most countries.
The International Monetary Fund warned: "although the world economy has recovered, future stagnation is inevitable". "I asked the crisis, historically lower interest rates in the range of three to six percentage points, but only three countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and development, Turkey, Mexico, and Iceland - have this kind of scattered today."
Is the study of the IMF staff to demonstrate how central banks can develop a system of making interest rates negative deep a suitable option, this comes at a time that suits the Fed to convince markets that it can proceed from the current range of $ 2.25% to 2.5% with two rate increase more than this year.
But markets are skeptical, which puts the probability at around 4% only on one visit in December, compared with the odds of almost 12% to reduce by the end of the year, according to many of the future Fed funds
2. We have nothing to fear, but...
The VIX has recorded its lowest level since October on Wednesday.
That makes sense given the March. After the recent slump in December, the lower the VIX index more than 50%, while the S & P 500 index by about 15%.
Has achieved the Dow Jones beat its previous week on Friday, having recovered all of its losses almost minutes before closing. But the geopolitical headlines that prevailed in December are re-emerging on stocks this week.
While it may be premature to label the bottom of the short-term VIX, the argument is not without merit. There is a lot of uncertainty to get around in the coming weeks, which may not send the fear index only to multiply, but by the challenge of risk appetite.
The threat of another shutdown of the U.S. government early next week looms. There is little evidence so far that Congress and the White House have concluded a budget deal by February 15.
The United States trade dispute with the European Union over car imports is expected to return to the spotlight. Scheduled to arrive at the recommendations of the Ministry of Commerce to whether it will impose tariffs of up to 25% on imported cars and spare parts from the European Union by February 17.
On the geopolitical front, the exit of Britain from the European Union is a source of concern because of the United Kingdom and the European Union in conflict on the issue of support to the Irish. Warned Bank of England Governor Mark Carney earlier this week of not having a deal could plunge Britain's exit from the United Kingdom in the recession.
And concerns about the global growth front and center, where they didn't show Germany any reference to it will avoid the second quarter of negative growth, respectively, causing stagnation of art, after the announcement of a series of economic data harsh.
This uncertainty may not trigger a harmful upward movement at VIX. But it suggests that the smooth path of swashbuckling gains in February is facing a lot of drilling.
. 3. Will Wal-Mart be forced to return to India?
You know Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) reported earnings two weeks and there will be an examination of the strong performance in electronic commerce as usual.
But there must be more attention to the e-commerce business in India, which is facing an existential threat, according to the broker this week.
Wal-Mart ended its takeover of the Indian e-commerce giant Flipkart in August. On February 1, however, the Indian government introduced new regulations designed to help smaller Indian retailers face competition such as Flipkart and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN).
Among the new rules are mainly aimed at those of the two big, the Prohibition of companies with FDI from selling products online from vendors who have a stake in. Can't e-commerce companies owning more than 25% of their inventory from one supplier and can not have exclusive products on the portal by the online.
Morgan Stanley stressed that this would be a terrible Wal-Mart search warrant this week.
He said Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS): "is likely to be out (A) n is totally unthinkable, with the increasing complexity of the e-commerce market of India".
Morgan said also that Flipkart may need to remove up to 25% of its products from its site to comply with.
"There is a precedent for the exit, as Amazon withdrew from China in late 2017 after noting that the model no longer works for them".
But Wal-Mart reaffirmed its commitment to the market this week.
Said Dirk Van den Berg, regional CEO to buy "art" in Asia and Canada, to serve the news Indian-Asian: "the commitment of Wal-Mart and Flipkart towards India is deep and long-lasting". "Despite recent changes in regulations, we remain optimistic about the country."
According to the brokerage, given the above, flipchart may need to remove about 25% of its products from its site